Note: If you wouldn't say it to someone's face, don't say it here. Comments deleted on a whim.
Sometimes your highly specialized statistics irritate the hell out of me, Aaron. But this time, they helped me make sense of my frustrations with the pitching staff. Then again, maybe it's all hogwash. Maybe Chance the Gardenhire was right last season...maybe all we need is a rubber armed innings eater...
Hey Aaron,
Good stuff on the run prevention situation. At this point, I still don't care much about the ERA, but am concerned about the HR% and SO% numbers.
I wonder about evaluating the defense statistically--has the tough schedule made it more difficult on the defense than usual? We know that averaging over all players and over full seasons that BABIP can be attributed mainly to defenses, but we also know that BABIP remains a skill for hitters. Have you ever seen anyone try to adjust for something like this? It seems like it'd be a fairly subtle adjustment, but maybe nothing more complicated than park factors. Also, I can't help but wonder if the pitching quality would improve if the fielders were getting a few more outs for the pitchers, getting them back into the dugout and keeping them from throwing more pitches late in innings.
Watching the defense with my eyes, I'm not all that impressed but what I've seen. My eyes have lied before, though.
Radke should just retire......
Very good information again, Aaron, thanks. And yet another argument against Gardy's insistence that a career journeyman SS is a better option than a minor leaguer with his best days (hopefully!) ahead of him. I just finished "The Mind of Bill James" and was reviewing the old fallacy of how Ozzie Smith used to "save the Cards 100 RUNS per year" which was, of course, lunacy and also was drawn to the quote from Bill James, "Poor organizations believe there is a MAGIC in 'proven' major league talent..." versus minor league talent with much more upside. Two glaring examples of this being, of course, our 2 Jasons vs. "proven major leaguers" Castro and Sierra who will NOT be better than they have been this year..."proven" to be average at BEST...but I got off track.
I like to flip DER around so it's from the point of view of the batter. Comparing 70.3% to 65.8% becomes a more familiar comparison of a .297 and .342 batting average, more or less. That difference seems HUGE.
Last year, I wrote on July 12th about how the Twins fared againt the elite teams in the league record-wise since 2002. I found that the Twins won about 44% of their games against teams with a record of .560 or better. The Twins also killed really crappy teams. I looked at the schedule from that point forward and said that not only would the Twins not win the division, they would relinquish their wild card lead.
Of course, that was correct. One thing to remember about 2002-04 is that the Twins had the easiest schedule in the majors each of those three seasons. So, they could crush their in division rivals, play poorly against the elite teams and still ride home with a division title. Now, however, with two pretty good teams in their division (and maybe three), the Twins no longer have the easiest schedule in the bigs. They will have to fare much better against elite teams to make the playoffs. Their performance to this point (.378 winning percentage) provides little evidence (and it's early) to believe that they will be able to compete against the truly good teams. Beating KC doesn't mean much when they have so many more games against better competition.
Congrats on your 50 pounds lost.
Beating KC doesn't mean much when they have so many more games against better competition.
It actually means more than it did when the schedule was weaker. The Twins now must pretty much sweep the lower tiered teams to be within striking distance now.
At least the law of averages says that things have to get better from here on out. Unless the talent level of each of the members of the pitching staff has significantly diminished from previous years.
Even if that's the case, I think Lohse, Radke, and Silva would have a hard time pitching this poorly for an entire season. (if for no other reason than they would have lost their job to Liriano long before that)
Time to forget about that pathetic weekend and salvage this road trip by pounding the Royals and hoepfully the Tigers too.
And as was stated earlier, congrats on hitting the 50 lb mark.
Regardless of how much it means, beating the Royals would sure be a whole lot better than losing to them.
Sometimes your highly specialized statistics irritate the hell out of me, Aaron.
Anti-intellectualism is alive and well!
Congrats on your 50 pounds lost.
Thanks. Only 1,000 more to go.
BTW, I appeared on Rosen's Sports Sunday last night and hope to have a clip for tomorrow. It was sort of a disappointing piece, more or less along the lines of the one on Channel 5 earlier.
Anti-intellectualism?
Anti-intellectualism?
Yes? It was a joke. In other news, I don't really plan to lose another 1,000 pounds.
I'd say the key point from the graph is that Liriano belongs in the rotation.
I hate to see the pitchers struggle but I would hate even more to see the hitters struggle while the pitchers produced -- that would be all too much like last year.
At least at this point in the season we have seen that the hitters are capable of producing while the track records and talent of the starting pitching indicate the pitching struggles will not be season long.
And poor Joes like me are just waiting for the team to start playing respectable ball on a more consistant basis. And beating up on KC is not going to count, regardless of how much hype it generates.
You can't take much comfort in the fact that the Twins have been battling better than average hitting clubs either. Last year the Twins pitchers turned in a collective 3.32 ERA against the same 6 teams they've faced in 2006, which was 11% better than they did overall!
The difference in their performance against their 2 chief Central Division rivals is especially scary: 3.23 last year, 7.50 in 2006! Stated another way, they are only 14% of the way through the season with the ChiSox and Tribe yet have already given up 1/3 as many ER's!
There aren't really any solid conclusions you can make after 18 games, except that the Twins have played a lot of very good hitting teams early in the year, even managing to beat a couple of them more than once (the Yanks and the A's). The absolute worst thing about this early schedule is that they have to play each of their division rivals on the road in the first month before they get a divisional home game. Think about that. It's ludicrous.
That's not to make any excuses. The pitching has been worse than we should have expected, even allowing for the difficult schedule, especially Radke and Silva. Yes, the Liriano exile has to end now, and it has to end with Kyle Lohse pitching for another team. Radke and Silva have to get it together now. Those may not actually be boo's we hear after Radke gives up his 20th first inning homerun of the season sometime in late May - it may be the fans chanting for Boof.
But seriously, if you had told me in January that the Twins starters ERA would be over 6 after the first 18 games, I wouldn't have expected them to have actually won any games. I guess I shouldn't complain.
Regarding defense, I am now going to keep Tony Batista's ba and slg by subtracting off hits and total bases he gives up relative to your average fielder (for obp adjustment, just see ba--it's Batista). I won't do this for Morneau, who deserves it, because I want Morneau to play, and because I don't expect a first baseman to necessarily move all that much.
Since this is very subjective, I will try to be conservative as to what plays Batista would have made if he were average. Errors won't count. Nor will hits occurring after there should have been, save for Batista, three outs. I counted two hits and three bases on Saturday. Can anyone honestly give me a conservative estimate of balls Batista has played into hits? And the total bases? I would prefer specific remembrances.
It's a rare occasion that I get to see Twins games live so I'm hesitant to comment, but I did get to suffer through most of the weekend's carnage. My one observation, and one which I noticed much of last year and in the playoffs previously, is the approach Twins batters have at the plate. They look utterly overmatched when compared to the Sox (either), Yanks, or Indians. The batters from these other teams seem to work the counts, foul off pitches, and take their big hacks on favorable pitches. Note: Yes, Thome did strike out several times this weekend, but when you wreak as much havoc as he does, it's acceptable. The Twins, on the other hand, seem to rarely work a count, rarely foul off pitches, and often seem to be swinging at a "pitcher's pitch". Yes, it seemed as though each time they hit the ball hard, it was right at a Sox defender. But, how many times did they foul out, or hit weak pop-ups, or ground out meakly to the middle infielder? I hate to even mention this since I brought up working the count, but when they do take a pitch it always seem to big a big ol' fat tator for a strike on the first pitch that could've and should've been mashed into gravy. Okay, others with my observations? Also, anyone care to check the SABR stats swinging at quality pitches(if there are any) and see if I'm correct?
...is the approach Twins batters have at the plate. They look utterly overmatched when compared to the Sox (either), Yanks, or Indians.
I couldn't agree more. Watching Travis Hafner, I felt like he was toying with the Twins staff. The Twins instantly get themselves in batting count holes by swinging at first pitches. I see it as the Twins having a whole bunch of "guess" hitters.
On Saturday, with the bases loaded, two outs, and Hunter up with a 3-0 count, I prayed that he might actually take a pitch in that situation. What's the worst that could happen? It's a strike and now he's in a still very favorable hitter's count with the sacks juiced. Morneau was hitting behind him, and I don't think there was a lefty ready, although I'm probably mistaken.
The only Twin with any decent plate coverage at this point is Mauer. Castillo, too, when he comes back. I think Kubel will have it, and I actually think Rondell White has it when in form. Bartlett, too. LOL
So how long long does Castro get? He's obviously not hot and not providing good ABs at this point.
On Saturday, with the bases loaded, two outs, and Hunter up with a 3-0 count, I prayed that he might actually take a pitch in that situation. What's the worst that could happen? It's a strike and now he's in a still very favorable hitter's count with the sacks juiced.
Actually, I was glad he had the green light. Torii's a guy who can rip it when he knows he's getting a fastball. In the second game of the season, he was swinging on a 2-0 pitch with the bases load and he hit a grand slam. Even though the pitch was about at his eyes, it was the pitch he wanted and he blasted it. Hunter is not a guy who's going to work the count and see a lot of pitches, he needs to be aggressive and jump on the pitch he wants when he sees it. He almost tied the game with a grand slam on that swing Saturday, but came up a little short.
I think the last two posts on the Twins approach are dead on. Gardenhire has promoted a free swinger mentality and Jacque and Torii have carried manifested it over the years. Gardenhire has no problem with players taking wild first hacks and seems to promote it. Remember one of the first things Gardenhire did when hired was name Jacque Jones the leadoff hitter despite his free swinging ways. Since then, he's seemed to have viewed his batters' free swinging ways with nonchalance, almost encouraging wild first hacks and certainly doing little to eradicate it. And when the star center fielder, team leader and highest paid player goes up there hacking at anything, it encourages others to do the same. The Twins adopted a free swinging mentality when they hired Gardenhire and, aside from bringing in a few guys with patience like Stewart, Castillo and Mauer, little has been done to eradicate it.
Aaron's Daily Dose today contains this gem...
Eric Milton is scheduled to undergo relatively minor knee surgery and is expected to miss about a month, which is a tough break for NL hitters.
Awesome. Shecky is shaking in his loafers as we type.
Two thoughts:
1) Castro has exceeded expectations, and if he finishes the season with a .250, he'll be a marked improvement from last years short stop by committee.
2) We may have been wrong to expect production like last season from Silva. Slow sinking fastballs have thin margin of error, and we've seen the what happens when that error doesn't fly.
"1) Castro has exceeded expectations, and if he finishes the season with a .250, he'll be a marked improvement from last years short stop by committee."
I'm pretty sure he was a big part of last year's shortstop by committee.
Marked improvement? Hmmm....
I know the Twins have a reputation for being free swingers, but it seemed to me that this weekend, they watched a lot of hittable first pitches go by, and that was what put them in holes and forced them to hit pitchers' pitches. I'm just going by recollection, so I certainly could be wrong.
My wife was doing alot of groaning. She has never hit a baseball, but knows a meatball when she sees one.
I was pretty happy to hear Gardy put a ton of "blame" on Cuddyer, for grounding into a double play on the first pitch in the ninth inning last night.
Hero one night. Goat the next. Welcome to the Twins Rookie!
"1) Castro has exceeded expectations, and if he finishes the season with a .250, he'll be a marked improvement from last years short stop by committee."
If Castro finishes the season with a .250 BA, will his OPS be over .540? Because right now he's hitting .280 with a .608 OPS. That's only about 50 points above the absolute minimum (okay OBP can be a little lower than your average) of someone hitting .280. I'm pretty sure that his performance at the plate, right now, has not "exceeded expectations." In fact, it's even worse than I thought it would be.
I was pretty happy to hear Gardy put a ton of "blame" on Cuddyer, for grounding into a double play on the first pitch in the ninth inning last night.
Reminds me of when I was seven years old and I pinch hit in the last inning with two out and struck out. Some eight year old came up to me and told me I cost the team the game. We lost by like six runs.
Reminds me of when I was seven years old and I pinch hit in the last inning with two out and struck out. Some eight year old came up to me and told me I cost the team the game. We lost by like six runs.
Well, if it helps, I'm blaming you personally for the corruption of ESPN, Cold Pizza and New Coke.
Twins are 8th in strikeouts, 9th in walks, 9th in on base %, 9th in batting average & 12th in runs scored.
If the Twins taught "free swinging" I'd expect more home runs & extra base hits, but they're 11th in slugging %.
Twins teach "situational hitting", not "free swinging."
It don't seem to work good, do it?
Its hard for the defense to catch some balls...particularly ones hit 15 rows into the bleachers...
It really is time for Rick Anderson to get this ship righted. We have seen little improvement in Lohse over how many years? Crain and Silva have somehow forgotten how to throw their bread and butter pitches...well its Anderson's job to help them figure it out.
Ok, here's a hella long post.
Aaron, DER is an overlooked stat and would be great for explaining some of the problems, but I think in trying to assign some over-arching "problem" with the pitching staff has been glossing over the fact that a lot of guys have individual problems.
1. Santana: In the 2 or 3 starts I have watched Santana pitch, he has threw his changeup for strikes maybe 5 times a game at most. I don't care how good of a fastball you have, if that's all you have, you can't go through a lineup 3+ times and do much better than a 4.81 ERA. He's the one I have the most confidence in to recover soon, since he is always mediocre in April.
2. Radke: I've watched just one Radke start, but from what I've seen, he just isn't that good anymore. It seems to me that his previously awesome command, which made him sort of Greg Maddux Lite has completely left him. Without it, he's basically throwing batting practice out there. He still has great control, but he's serving up a meatball every other pitch.
3. Silva:
We may have been wrong to expect production like last season from Silva. Slow sinking fastballs have thin margin of error, and we've seen the what happens when that error doesn't fly.
The problem right now is that his slow sinking fastballs aren't sinking at all. I've watched several of Silva's starts, and he didn't have much sink at all nearly all of the time. Most pitches were up in the zone and pretty straight. And of course Gardy, being the fool that he is, is leaving him in way too long in every start because through some irrational reasoning he thinks that Silva will pitch through it.
4. Baker: Good Gravy.
5. Lohse: Good God.
Lohse doesn't really need explaining. He sucks as a starter and has no "awesome untapped potential". Anyone who believes otherwise is just lying to themselves. I'd like to seem him tried in the pen before he gets kicked off the island, who knows what he could do when he only has to pitch one inning at a time and could concentrate on mastering 2 pitches instead of being barely adequate with 4.
Comments on relievers:
Liriano: Why is he not in the rotation yet? That is all.
Rincon: Why does Gardenhire continue to use him in situations for the "2004-2005 top setup man Rincon" when he's clearly not back to that form yet?
Crain: I addressed him in the comments on one of Aaron's earlier posts, but I basically agreed with Aaron's points on him. Why he hasn't been using his supposedly great slider continues to baffle me.
Nathan: exposing daily the idiotic flaw of modern reliever usage. The Twins best reliever has hardly been used because there have been so few save opportunities. Leave it to Gardenhire to follow such an insanely rigid use pattern that his best reliever is the one that is used the least.
And one final non-pitching related point:
Castro's OPS with the Twins: .608 and falling
Bartlett's OPS in AAA .853, though apparently the Twins believe he still needs some more work on his leadership skills. Damn it Gardenhire, you are such a tool.
Whew. I'm out.
One final comment on Castro. It seems like he's been trying to pull the ball the last number of games instead of hitting those little dinks to the opposite field for singles. He looks horrible right now.
I'm the master of stating the obvious.
And one comment about the spanking put on the Twins by our beloved White Sox.
I haven't seen a beating that bad since someone stuck a banana down my pants and turned a monkey loose.
On free swingers: I think some hitters are better when they are aggressive. Guerrero and Puckett come to mind. While Hunter is not in their class as a hitter, he's a lot better when he's hacking than when he's trying to be someone he's not. He proved that when he was overcoached early in his career and ended up hitting around the Mendoza line.
Also, I think it might help if Stewart and Castillo lwere in the line-up. Combined with Mauer and Ford, that's four out of nine patient hitters. If Bartlett came up to replace the walkless Castro, that would tip the scales five to four in favor of patient hitters with all the hackers clumped in the RBI spots. That's a lot better than 2002, when Koskie and Ortiz were the only patient hitters on the team.
That's a lot better than 2002, when Koskie and Ortiz were the only patient hitters on the team.
Come on now, you're getting me all bleary-eyed with those memories of 8-pitch, three up, three down innings. It's all coming back... (Actually, to be fair, Mientkiewicz was fairly patient, too, for a while almost to a fault, although that was more in 2003.)
I would also be curious to see the Twins DER last season over a stretch where the pitchers werent doing so well...my bet is that it is lower than their average from last year
The Twins are living proof as to why Fielding Percentage should be scrapped as an official fielding stat. As of this morning, they are #1 in FPCT and #30 in DER. Did you guys clone Tony Batista? Cheer up, it can only get better from here, but they must start making the proper personnel decisions. Does that start with firing Ryan and Gardy?
Commenting by HaloScan
