Note: If you wouldn't say it to someone's face, don't say it here. Comments deleted on a whim.
I was with you this offseason, hoping to trade Kyle Lohse at all costs. But now I'm willing to look at the bright side.
He had a good spring, so maybe he can be effective this year.
Liriano still made the team. I was worried hanging onto Lohse would mean Liriano would start in the minors.
And, now, like you said, we have the option of dealing him mid-season or at the deadline. I'm not sure on this, but wouldn't his value be a little higher to some teams at that point than it would be in the offseason. Afterall, he's not one of those free agent-to-be guys that only give you 2 months of service time.
I too am a bit surprised they thought outside the box about Reyes vs Eyre choice, and I welcome it.
It would have been a bit better if their lineup looked like
2b Castillo
LF Stewart
C Mauer
DH Durazo/LeCroy
CF Hunter
3B Koskie
1B Morn-o
RF Kubel/Cuddyer
SS Bartlett
Bench:
Lecroy DH/1B
Redmond C
Punto IF
Cuddyer IF/OF
Ford OF
That could have been done easily.
I also think the main reason the twins have a chance to win the Central is because of this exact pitching staff.
I'm actually glad they kept Lohse, but a big part of his value was keeping Liriano down to work on his command for a couple months before they could bring him up. I am most assuradly NOT comfortable with Liriano in teh Twins bullpen this year.
Past of me actually hopes that someone (not santana, of course) goes down for a couple months in late June. If Liriano is used sparingly, but gets in a lot of extrs throwing work with Anderson and gets that fastball down, it would be good for Liriano just to keep his Innnings Pitched up.
I'm not sure on this, but wouldn't his value be a little higher to some teams at that point than it would be in the offseason.
I would agree on that. When teams are just on the fringe of the playoffs, they are often willing to overpay at the deadline, especially for pitching.
I would agree on that. When teams are just on the fringe of the playoffs, they are often willing to overpay at the deadline, especially for pitching.
The problem is that by dealing Lohse for a hitter before the season was halfway over (or more), the impact that hitter could have had on the Twins would have been significantly bigger. In other words, by the time they can get maximum value out of Lohse, it might be too late for the move to help them enough for this season.
Sorry, but I can't buy the anti-Lohse and pro-Liriano hype.
Liriano is very talented, no doubt, but he is very young and has almost no big league experience yet. Furthermore, he is only a single season removed from a lot injury problems.
So while it is fashionable to think that Liriano is the second-coming of Santana, I think it much more likely that he will somewhat struggle for a couple more years, until he gets more experience. Look for him to to put up the 4.50 ERA this year.
Meanwhile, Lohse had a very good spring. There is no doubt that he has very good 'stuff'. He is in a contract year. He has experience and is entering a prime age for pitchers. Of course, his head might get in the way once again, but I think that Lohse has the best chance of surprising people this year. Look for him to eat up close to 200 innings and keep his ERA under 4.00.
Sorry, but I can't buy the anti-Lohse and pro-Liriano hype.
I just predicted that Kyle Lohse would have a 4.50 ERA in 2006. He has a career ERA of 4.72. There is no "anti-Lohse hype"
Meanwhile, Lohse had a very good spring.
Lohse's "very good spring" consisted of 20.1 innings. Essentially he had a good three-start stretch, which is certainly something he's done numerous times during the regular season over the past five years.
Here's something to chew on when thinking about whether 20.1 innings in spring training is meaningful enough to base anything on: Lohse had a 2.35 ERA in 23 spring innings back in 2004. He then proceeded to go 9-13 with a 5.34 ERA.
There is no doubt that he has very good 'stuff'.
Sure there is. This supposed "very good stuff" certainly hasn't translated to actual wins, good ERAs or strikeouts yet. I have my doubts about whether his "stuff" is truly so good or if he just throws hard. There's a big difference.
Just to be clear, I have no problem with people being optimistic about Lohse (or anyone else), but you don't have to preface everything by conjuring up some sort of anti-Lohse establishment in a world where everyone thinks Liriano is god, Lohse's stuff is great, his 20 spring innings are meaningful, etc, etc.
I'm with AdamOnFirst. I'd rather see Liriano working on his consistency in the minors every 5th day. Don't we risk messing him up by sticking him in the bullpen all of a sudden? This bullpen doesn't need him either.
As for Lohse, I expect big things. I remember listening to the Tigers announcers marvel at the way he was pitching in a game last September. I expect him to surprise those who think of him as average.
As for Lohse, I expect big things. I remember listening to the Tigers announcers marvel at the way he was pitching in a game last September. I expect him to surprise those who think of him as average.
That's fine, but haven't Twins fans literally been saying this about Lohse before each of the past 3-4 seasons? At some point whatever potential some people see in him has to take a backseat to his actual performance.
Anyone know of any fantasy baseball leagues? I am looking to get into one but haven't found a league yet. I would do internet or in person draft, doesn't matter to me. If you have a league or know of someone who needs another team, let me know! schultznathan@yahoo.com.
i think Aaron mentioned this earlier this spring, and i think i posted a comment over the winter about it. i REALLY wanted Wily Mo Pena for Lohse. after the Reds got Arroyo for Pena, i was shocked. Arroyo and Lohse are pretty similar pitchers but Lohse is 2 years younger. no idea how that one worked out.
i've never been a fan of Lohse (how can anyone be after his temper tantrum last season?) but i'm a little more optomistic this year because it was reported that his command is improving after he dropped his curve ball from his arsenal.
I agree that Lohse has not fulfilled his potential and it seems a waste of Liriano's talent to use him in a long relief role.
However, its a long season and every team needs depth in its pitching staff. Silva was injuried a long time last year and Baker is more unproven so I think Ryan needs to keep Lohse for insurance and Liriano will eventually get his starts.
I do believe this is a make or break season for Lohse and by the All-Star break, he could be included in a possible trade.
"I think a 650-run season is well within reach."
Unfortunately, you might also use this phrase after the position players are set.
I like keeping Liriano up with the big club. This gives him an opportunity to face big league hitters. Sending him back to Rochester to face the same hitters he did at the end of last year does nothing for me. I know he can pitch well in minors. Might as well find out if he can win the majors. Another factor he will be working under Anderson each day and Cueller the gifted minor league pitching coach no longer works for the Twins. Something to chew on...
I agree...I think a lot of people wouldn't mind Wily Mo in our lineup! The Sox got him for Bronson Arroyo? Wow...
I like keeping Liriano with the big club in the bullpen as well. I really think that people are underestimated the role that Liriano is going to have. He might fill in as a long reliever from time to time, but I also think we are going to see him pitch alot of 7th innings as well, and not just as a LOOGY. I think the Twins are going to use Rincon, Crain and Liriano as primary setup men, with Eyre pitching low leverage situations and Guerrier acting as the swingman between long relief and occasional setup responsibilities.
I really think that being in the bullpen will benefit Liriano in the long run, both this season and beyond. If he has to become a starter later in the year, either by trade or injury, the less innings he pitches in the beginning of the season will be less wear by the time September and (hopefully) October role around.
Until then, like you said Aaron, the bullpen is a great strength, and there is no team that can match the power arms that we have at the back of our bullpen.
Is anyone else worried about Radke this year? I'm afraid he's totally lost it. I haven't seen too much talk about him over the offseason, which isn't really surprising, I guess, considering how long he's been a sure thing. But I'm worried about this year. What do you think?
I'm not sure on this, but wouldn't his value be a little higher to some teams at that point than it would be in the offseason.
I don't know. It didn't seem all that high at that point last year.
Looking on the bright side, here's a thought toward the best case scenario for Lohse:
In this, Lohse's contract year, he's finally able to match whatever "stuff" he has with an improved mental state to have consistent, above-average season and to make it worth TRyan's while to bring him back next year as Radke's replacement.
Either that, or he's above-average enough for the first half to warrant dealing him for Melvin Mora.
While it's interesting to see so many people grasp as the contract-year straw while looking for reason to being optimistic about Lohse, there's very little evidence that the "walk year effect" actually exists in any sort of significant way.
I too am looking forward to a fine year of pitching, but one quibble:
Actually, Brad Radke is _my_ idea of a #2 starter. He has pitched 200+ innings with a 100+ adjusted ERA nine times in the past ten years, which is amazing dependability. He has a 113 career adjusted ERA, basically the same as Freddy Garcia and Kevin Millwood. And it's not like these are long-ago accomplishments: in 2004, the AL leaders in VORP were Santana, Schilling, Radke.
I notice that Baseball Prospectus decided to dump on him this year, but I don't see why.
Roy
Actually, Brad Radke is _my_ idea of a #2 starter. He has pitched 200+ innings with a 100+ adjusted ERA nine times in the past ten years, which is amazing dependability. He has a 113 career adjusted ERA, basically the same as Freddy Garcia and Kevin Millwood. And it's not like these are long-ago accomplishments: in 2004, the AL leaders in VORP were Santana, Schilling, Radke.
I'm all for guys eating innings, it's just not all I would want in a #2 starter. Radke has been significantly better (say, 10%) than league-average in just one of the past four seasons. To me that's a mid-rotation guy. And he's 33 now, so what he did in his 20s isn't all that relevant.
Anybody know a good spot to find offensive numbers for a season by position? For example I'm curious to see what the Twins 3rd baseman hit in 2005, 2004, etc.
I fail to understand the problem of putting Liriano in the bullpen. I thought that racking up too many innings at a young age is a BAD thing!? He's only a couple of years removed from arm trouble. Limiting his innings by putting him in the pen will be good for him in the long term.
And besides that, starting out in the bullpen used to be standard practice for young pitchers. Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer and more recently Pedro Martinez all started their careers in major league bullpens.
Is Gardenhire still going to do the ridiculous Brad Radke psuedo-ace routine by starting him on opening day and having him head the rotation? I can't stand that.
Santana has been the best pitcher in baseball for two years and it serves as a disadvantage for the twins by not having him oppose the ace of the opposing team.
Santana's starting the season opener this year.
yeah johan starts. i think Brad is going to start on the home opener. The "pseudo-ace routine" is more about respecting the loyalty of a guy that stuck with a club in its darkest moments. As Santana proved that he wasnt just a one-season wonder over the course of 2005 I think the torch was sort of informally passed.
"MLB to bring in ex-Senator to probe Bonds"
(link on cnnsi.com)
heh heh... probe.
re:Liriano
I would think you guys would be worried about putting a young pitcher in the pen, having him only throw 15-20 pitches a game, then switching him to the rotation and asking his arm to throw 85-90 pitches. Sounds like an injury waiting to happen.
Lohse is in a contract year? What then was he in last year? The year before? His situation (facing arbitration) is no different than the last couple of years. He'll be a free agent at the end of 2007.
And besides that, starting out in the bullpen used to be standard practice for young pitchers. Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer and more recently Pedro Martinez all started their careers in major league bullpens.
I agree and think we should start Liriano every fourth day and let him throw anywhere between 100 and 140 pitches each start. Because they all did. Oops, except for the one continuously fighting injuries (Pedro).
I fail to understand the problem of putting Liriano in the bullpen. I thought that racking up too many innings at a young age is a BAD thing!? He's only a couple of years removed from arm trouble. Limiting his innings by putting him in the pen will be good for him in the long term.
Who said there was a problem?
I wrote this about Liriano going to the bullpen a couple days ago:
Despite what my "Free Johan Santana!" campaign a few years ago might have you believe, I'm not against Liriano beginning the year in the bullpen. In fact, I was never actually against Santana getting his feet wet as a reliever. I believe putting young starters in the bullpen is a great way to work them into the big leagues. However, in Santana's case his time as a reliever dragged on far too long. He had four seasons in the majors and was 25 years old by the time the Twins finally handed him a rotation spot for good. That was what I had a problem with.
There is no danger of that happening with Liriano, as the Twins have given every indication that he'll be a full-time member of the rotation by 2007 at the latest. With that said, I don't think using Liriano as a typical LOOGY is a very good plan. His future is without question in the rotation and there's a good chance that he'll be asked to start every fifth day during the second half. Because of that, is asking him to focus on short relief outings where he typically only faces left-handed hitters really all that smart?
I would love to see the Twins go without a traditional LOOGY, moving Matt Guerrier into a more prominent middle-relief role behind Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain, and sticking Liriano in Guerrier's old spot as a long reliever. That way Liriano gets his feet wet in low-pressure situations, but is also able to keep his stamina and arm ready for when he's asked to start while continuing to work on his full repertoire of pitches.
I would think you guys would be worried about putting a young pitcher in the pen, having him only throw 15-20 pitches a game, then switching him to the rotation and asking his arm to throw 85-90 pitches. Sounds like an injury waiting to happen.
Right. Like I've been saying, if he's a long reliever that's just fine. I just think he should be trying to develop his ability to start, which isn't going to happen making one-inning appearances three times a week.
Incidentally, I just shot the thing for TV that I hinted at the other day. Sort of an odd experience, but I think it went pretty well.
Aaron,
As Judge Smails said in Caddyshack. "WELL, we're waiting."
If it's in the can, you can spill the news now, can't you?
If it's in the can, you can spill the news now, can't you?
I'm hesitant, just because I'm not 100% sure when it'll run. Could be this week, could be next week, etc. Plus it's fun to be a tease.
Um, I mean "continually" fighting injuries.
Aaron, the more you tease, the more I want you.
Aaron, the more you tease, the more I want you.
That's the idea.
my main concern about losing lohse is that it sounds as if we are losing radke next year. i would be uncomfortable with expecting a rotation of santana, silva, baker, liriano, and say perkins next year to produce consistently. three of those pitchers have minimal mlb experience, i think it's alot to expect from such a young staff. having a pitcher like lohse, where at least you know what you are getting, prevents you from scrambling for a 4th or 5th starter when baker/liriano/perkins turns out to be a bust. so while i would probably prefer a big bat over lohse at this point, i'm not sure that will be the case come next year.
"I fail to understand the problem of putting Liriano in the bullpen. I thought that racking up too many innings at a young age is a BAD thing!? He's only a couple of years removed from arm trouble. Limiting his innings by putting him in the pen will be good for him in the long term.
Who said there was a problem?"
Not directed at you Aaron...more the other folks who seem to be complaining about using him this way. My bad for not being clear on that.
I guess my feeling is that while there is some risk in having Liriano "fail to develop" in the pen, the same could be said of having him face AAA hitters. If Gardenhire can use him wisely (admitedly questionable), his development shouldn't be hurt by a couple of months in the pen. It's time for him to face major league hitters, as he has nothing left to prove in the minors. I don't think there is much doubt that he is one of our best 11 pitchers, and we will need all of the wins we can get this year.
I think Lohse is still here for 3 reasons.
1) Texas wouldn't give up Blalock for him.
2) Radke's shoulder.
3) 2007
This will almost certainly be the last year Radke and Lohse will be in the rotation together. If Lohse has a good year and Radke's back for '07, the Twins won't be able to afford another arbitration award while giving Santana and (hopefully) Hunter raises. If Radke and Lohse are gone, we might have a hole in the rotation in '07. And if any of the starters went down this year it could be a long year with 3 inexperienced starters.
Last year Lohse had the 25th best ERA in the American League. Hank Blalock ranked 58th in batting average, and 53rd in OPS. While I would have been fine with that trade, what was Ryan supposed to do with Lohse?
SawdustKing,
That's not really a good comparison because there are a lot more qualifiers in the batting race (80) than in the pitching race (44). I'm guessing that both Blalock and Lohse were around average last year, regardless of their rank numbers.
The problem is that by dealing Lohse for a hitter before the season was halfway over (or more), the impact that hitter could have had on the Twins would have been significantly bigger. In other words, by the time they can get maximum value out of Lohse, it might be too late for the move to help them enough for this season.
The overall value versus helping the team this year is an important consideration. However, you probably don't want Liriano pitching 200+ innings anyway, which might just wind up happening if you plug him into the rotation right away, because he has the talent to do it. So, you take the difference between Lohse and Liriano for half of a season, keep great depth in a rotation that definitely has some injury question marks in Radke (shoulder) and Silva (knee). Then, especially if you thought you couldn't get much for Lohse in the offseason, you hope to get more for him in mid-season, and hopefully something that will help you this season and beyond, because Lohse isn't likely to be helping the team past this season.
If the Twins had money to just plug holes with quality veteran free agents, then I think it's pretty clear that you should play to win this season and not worry as much about the consequences down the road. But given the amount of money that Terry Ryan is allowed to spend, I think that valuing future considerations over current considerations isn't too unreasonable.
I already posted my thoughts on Kyle Lohse elsewhere, but I'll sum them up here.
Personally, I don't think Kyle should be given as much criticism as he has been. Take away his terrible 2004 season and his career ERA would be 4.54, much closer to the league ERA of 4.49 over that time. Those numbers include his worst season, his rookie season, when he posted a 5.68 ERA over 90.1 innings.
Besides that, he hasn't been as bad as advertised. Of course, he had the incident last year where he blew up, but that doesn't have anything to do with what kind of pitcher he is or can be. In 2003, he posted numbers comparable to the "ace" of the staff:
Kyle Lohse: 4.61 ERA, 14 W, 11 L, 201.0 IP, 130/45 K/BB, 28 HR, 1.274 WHIP
Brad Radke: 4.49 ERA, 14 W, 10 L, 212.1 IP, 120/28 K/BB, 32 HR, 1.272 WHIP
Of course, this was when reliever turned started, began molding himself into the Cy Young Award winner we know as Johan Santana. However, he was not a full-time starter, despite being the best pitcher on the staff.
I made a rather bold prediction and I hope I don't get to much heat for this, but I think that Lohse will post an ERA more in the neighborhood of 4.00 than it will be 4.50 or even 4.20.
If Gardenhire can use him wisely (admitedly questionable), his development shouldn't be hurt by a couple of months in the pen.
While I'm hugely critical of a lot of lineup decisions that Gardy makes, I think if he's shown us anything, it's that he has a pretty decent idea of how to run a bullpen. It'll be a little harder on him this season since he doesn't have Mulholland around, since that was at least one guy in the 'pen that he didn't have to worry about overuse affecting future performance.
Overall, though, Gardy's always been able to use the bullpen pretty effectively, he doesn't get too wrapped up in matchup games, and his relievers tend to stay pretty healthy. It might be his only strength as a manager, but it is a strength.
Lohse for Blalock would have been fine. Especially when you consider that Tony Batista wouldn't be holding down 3rd. But that wasn't going to happen, and I'm not sure what Ryan could have got for him, but I'll take it on faith that it wasn't worth it.
That said, they made him consentrate on throwing just 3 pitches (instead of 5) last year and he responded by dramatically lowering his walk rate and reducing his ERA by better than a run. The one stat that I'm encouraged by this spring is that he's only walked 4 batters in 21 innings. I don't think that it's that optomistic to think he might lower his ERA to something under 4 this year. He's always "had great stuff, but was throwing not pitching". While we all sat and waited for a breakout year, maybe the transformation will just be a little more gradual. Anyway, don't be supprised if the rotation next year is Santana, Silva, Liriano, Lohse and Baker.
Aaron, have you noticed that your "Official Beat Writer," La Velle, hasn't written anything in the Strib in like 3 weeks? Do you have any idea what happened to him?
I don't mind the Twins turning their starting rotation over to the young guys over the next two years. As long as they are quality pitchers, it can work. It did in Oakland.
Well. Liriano pitched 191 innings last year, and 156 in 2004. So if the Twins want him to be a future starter and to avoid future injuries, the Twins SHOULD try to keep his innings UP to a MINIMUM of 160-180 innings.
In theory his arm is "used" to the wear and tear of this amount of innings, I do NOT want him to drop down to 100 innings.
I'm worried that Gardy using him for 4 innings a week is going to have some semi-serious ramefications in the future.
I would LOVE it if the Twins thought out of the box a bit, and used Liriano in the bullpen, AND gave him every 10th start... 4 innings a week as a reliever, 4 innings a week as a starter = 200 innings.
:)
Nick N. -- Lavelle E Neal's mother died recently...I am sure he is attending to that.
Commenting by HaloScan
